Intra- and interspecies infectious neighbourhoods as determinant parameters for Mycobacterium bovis infection among badgers in southwestern France.

The epidemiological system for Mycobacterium bovis in France involves cattle and, in some areas, wildlife species (mainly badgers and wild boar). This multi-host aspect complicates the control and eradication prospects for bovine tuberculosis in endemic areas, despite the surveillance and control measures implemented for decades in this officially tuberculosis-free European country. To improve control measures, and to manage spillback transmission from badgers to cattle, it is necessary to clarify the transmission mechanisms of M. bovis in these epidemiological systems. We modelled a badger population from a southwestern endemic area by a Dirichlet tessellation based on a sett census conducted by local hunters and trappers between 2013 and 2015. We then used a logistic regression model to test the association between the infection status of setts and computed variables depicting three types of transmission (intraspecific, interspecific and landscape-associated). The apparent prevalence of infected setts was of 40.5%. Two variables were significantly associated with the probability for a sett to be infected: the proportion of neighbouring setts that were infected (OR: 3.19 [2.04-5.17]95%) and the presence of nearby pastures belonging to an infected farm (OR: 2.33 [1.13-4.89]95%]. While badger culling measures have been implemented according to the national TB control plan in the study area since 2012 (in the vicinity of infected farms and their pastures), our results clearly highlight the need to reinforce measures aimed at reducing both intraspecific and interspecific infection pressure. For this purpose, the promising prospect of badger vaccination could be considered, along with biosecurity measures.

Spatial association of Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle and badgers at the pasture interface in an endemic area in France.

Despite control and surveillance programmes, Mycobacterium bovis, the main aetiologic agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), is still detected on cattle farms and in wildlife populations in France, especially in badgers in the French Côte-d'Or département. The aim of our study was to find out if infected badgers were trapped significantly closer to pastures of infected farms than non-infected badgers and, if so, to determine the most efficient distance around those pastures for badger trapping, particularly for surveillance purposes. We studied two subareas (southern and northern), chosen based on natural barriers to badger movements and according to the presence of pastures belonging to infected farms (POIFs) and infected or non-infected badgers. In each subarea, we computed the shortest distances D0 and D between badgers trapped a given year n between 2015 and 2019 (n = 59 infected and n = 1535 non-infected badgers for D0; n = 53 infected and n = 1476 non-infected badgers for D) and POIFs designated as infected between the year n - 4 and n + 1 (respectively n = 373 and n = 388 POIFs). D0 was calculated without considering spoligotypes, while D was calculated considering the possible epidemiological link between infected badgers and POIFs by using bTB spoligotype information. Then, we computed the observed mean and median of the D0 and D distances and used a bootstrap analysis to test if infected badgers were found significantly closer to POIFs than non-infected badgers. We observed that infection of badgers was not independent of distance from POIF in both subareas but distances (D0 or D) were different between the northern and southern subarea. In the northern subarea, which displays a mosaic landscape (mean and median D distances were respectively 612 m and 303 m for infected badgers), infected badgers indeed were trapped closer to POIFs, considering D0 and D. In the southern subarea, predominantly forested, infected badgers were significantly closer to POIFs than non-infected badgers when considering D0 but not for D (mean and median D distances were respectively 7148 m and 4831 m for infected badgers). These results will help to determine the most efficient distance from POIFs to trap badgers to determine their infection status in countryside landscapes. They also highlight the need to better understand the epidemiological systems at play in more forested landscapes where badgers may behave differently or other susceptible sympatric wild species might play a more important role in the circulation of M. bovis, both phenomena contributing to badger infection at greater distances from POIFs.

Assessing the impact of a test and vaccinate or remove badger intervention project on bovine tuberculosis levels in cattle herds.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic infection of domestic and wild animals caused mainly by Mycobacterium bovis. The Test and Vaccinate or Remove (TVR) project was a 5-year intervention (2014-2018) applied to Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) in a 100 km2 area of County Down, Northern Ireland. This observational study used routine bTB surveillance data of cattle to determine if the TVR intervention had any effect in reducing the infection at a herd level. The study design included the TVR treatment area (Banbridge) compared to the three adjacent 100 km2 areas (Dromore, Ballynahinch, and Castlewellan) which did not receive any badger intervention. Results showed that there were statistically lower bTB herd incidence rate ratios in the Banbridge TVR area compared to two of the other three comparison areas, but with bTB herd history and number of bTB infected cattle being the main explanatory variables along with Year. This finding is consistent with other study results conducted as part of the TVR project that suggested that the main transmission route for bTB in the area was cattle-to-cattle spread. This potentially makes any wildlife intervention in the TVR area of less relevance to bTB levels in cattle. It must also be noted that the scientific power of the TVR study (76%) was below the recommended 80%, meaning that results must be interpreted with caution. Even though statistical significance was achieved in two cattle-related risk factors, other potential risk factors may have also demonstrated significance in a larger study.

Analysis of a multi-type resurgence of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers in Southwest France, 2007-2019.

Although control measures to tackle bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle have been successful in many parts of Europe, this disease has not been eradicated in areas where Mycobacterium bovis circulates in multi-host systems. Here we analyzed the resurgence of 11 M. bovis genotypes (defined based on spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR) detected in 141 farms between 2007 and 2019, in an area of Southwestern France where wildlife infection was also detected from 2012 in 65 badgers. We used a spatially-explicit model to reconstruct the simultaneous diffusion of the 11 genotypes in cattle farms and badger populations. Effective reproduction number R was estimated to be 1.34 in 2007-2011 indicating a self-sustained M. bovis transmission by a maintenance community although within-species Rs were both < 1, indicating that neither cattle nor badger populations acted as separate reservoir hosts. From 2012, control measures were implemented, and we observed a decrease of R below 1. Spatial contrasts of the basic reproduction ratio suggested that local field conditions may favor (or penalize) local spread of bTB upon introduction into a new farm. Calculation of generation time distributions showed that the spread of M. bovis has been more rapid from cattle farms (0.5-0.7 year) than from badger groups (1.3-2.4 years). Although eradication of bTB appears possible in the study area (since R < 1), the model suggests it is a long-term prospect, because of the prolonged persistence of infection in badger groups (2.9-5.7 years). Supplementary tools and efforts to better control bTB infection in badgers (including vaccination for instance) appear necessary.

Genomic epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis infection in sympatric badger and cattle populations in Northern Ireland.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a costly, epidemiologically complex, multi-host, endemic disease. Lack of understanding of transmission dynamics may undermine eradication efforts. Pathogen whole-genome sequencing improves epidemiological inferences, providing a means to determine the relative importance of inter- and intra-species host transmission for disease persistence. We sequenced an exceptional data set of 619 Mycobacterium bovis isolates from badgers and cattle in a 100 km2 bTB 'hotspot' in Northern Ireland. Historical molecular subtyping data permitted the targeting of an endemic pathogen lineage, whose long-term persistence provided a unique opportunity to study disease transmission dynamics in unparalleled detail. Additionally, to assess whether badger population genetic structure was associated with the spatial distribution of pathogen genetic diversity, we microsatellite genotyped hair samples from 769 badgers trapped in this area. Birth death models and TransPhylo analyses indicated that cattle were likely driving the local epidemic, with transmission from cattle to badgers being more common than badger to cattle. Furthermore, the presence of significant badger population genetic structure in the landscape was not associated with the spatial distribution of M. bovis genetic diversity, suggesting that badger-to-badger transmission is not playing a major role in transmission dynamics. Our data were consistent with badgers playing a smaller role in transmission of M. bovis infection in this study site, compared to cattle. We hypothesize, however, that this minor role may still be important for persistence. Comparison to other areas suggests that M. bovis transmission dynamics are likely to be context dependent, with the role of wildlife being difficult to generalize.

"BACACIX", a spatial index combining proxies of bovine and badger space use associated with extended Mycobacterium bovis circulation in France.

To better prevent and control multi-host pathogen circulation over large areas, it is essential to identify patterns of disease persistence within host communities involved in pathogen circulation at a macroscale. The aim of this study was to design and calculate "BACACIX", a spatial index of indirect contacts between cattle and badgers, two species involved in the circulation of Mycobacterium bovis, one of the main causative agents of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), in some areas of France. The index combined spatial models of land use distribution (the probable distribution defining animal use of space) based on pasture location for cattle, and based on land cover for badgers, with proxies for animal density for both species. For badgers, we used two series of census data of badger setts in two regions of France to evaluate our model of badger space use distribution (also known as utilization distribution), and analyzed the relationship between BACACIX and the upsurge of bovine tuberculosis observed in several regions of France during the decade after the country obtained the officially bTB-free status in 2001. We observed high values of BACACIX from the southwest to the northeast of France and from Brittany to the Channel coast. Conversely, in two areas (north-central area and Mediterranean coast), index values were low, suggesting that indirect cattle-badger contacts were unlikely. In the two series of census data of badger setts that we analyzed, 96.5% and 87% of the global positioning system (GPS) locations of badger setts, respectively were located in the calculated badger space use distribution. A logistic regression model showed that after controlling bTB over the previous decade, the value of the index was positively associated with the risk of cattle outbreaks between 2001 and 2010 (OR = 1.57). In addition, the risk of bTB occurrence in cattle decreased when the pasture area outside the badger space use distribution increased. In the future, the spatial index of indirect cattle-badger contacts we propose could help to better target bTB surveillance and control in France.

Northern Ireland farm-level management factors for recurrent bovine tuberculosis herd breakdowns.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, infectious and zoonotic disease of domestic and wild animals caused mainly by Mycobacterium bovis. This study investigated farm management factors associated with recurrent bTB herd breakdowns (n = 2935) disclosed in the period 23 May 2016 to 21 May 2018 and is a follow-up to our 2020 paper which looked at long duration bTB herd breakdowns. A case control study design was used to construct an explanatory set of farm-level management factors associated with recurrent bTB herd breakdowns. In Northern Ireland, a Department of Agriculture Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) Veterinarian investigates bTB herd breakdowns using standardised guidelines to allocate a disease source. In this study, source was strongly linked to carryover of infection, suggesting that the diagnostic tests had failed to clear herd infection during the breakdown period. Other results from this study associated with recurrent bTB herd breakdowns were herd size and type (dairy herds 43% of cases), with both these variables intrinsically linked. Other associated risk factors were time of application of slurry, badger access to silage clamps, badger setts in the locality, cattle grazing silage fields immediately post-harvest, number of parcels of land the farmer associated with bTB, number of land parcels used for grazing and region of the country.

The Faecal Microbiome of the Wild European Badger Meles meles: A Comparison Against Other Wild Omnivorous Mammals from Across the Globe.

Here we investigate the faecal microbiome of wild European badgers Meles meles using samples collected at post-mortem as part of the All Wales Badger Found Dead study. This is the first published characterisation of the badger microbiome. We initially undertook a sex-matched age comparison between the adult and cub microbiomes, based on sequencing the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. Analysis used the QIIME 2 pipeline utilising DADA2 and the Silva database for taxonomy assignment. Fusobacteria appeared to be more abundant in the microbiomes of the cubs than the adults although no significant difference was seen in alpha or beta diversity between the adult and cub badger microbiomes. Comparisons were also made against other wild, omnivorous, mammals' faecal microbiomes using publicly available data. Significant differences were seen in both alpha and beta diversity between the microbiomes from different species. As a wildlife species of interest to the disease bovine tuberculosis, knowledge of the faecal microbiome could assist in identification of infected badgers. Our work here suggests that, if comparisons were made between the faeces of bTB infected and non-infected badgers, age may not have a significant impact on the microbiome.

Untargeted metabolomic analysis of thoracic blood from badgers indicate changes linked to infection with bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis): a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, represents a major disease burden to UK cattle farming, with considerable costs associated with its control. The European badger (Meles meles) is a known wildlife reservoir for bTB and better knowledge of the epidemiology of bTB through testing wildlife is required for disease control. Current tests available for the diagnosis of bTB in badgers are limited by cost, processing time or sensitivities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We assessed the ability of flow infusion electrospray-high-resolution mass spectrometry (FIE-HRMS) to determine potential differences between infected and non-infected badgers based on thoracic blood samples obtained from badgers found dead in Wales. Thoracic blood samples were autoclaved for handling in a containment level 2 (CL2) hazard laboratory. RESULTS: Here we show the major differences associated with with M. bovis infection were changes to folate, pyrimidine, histidine, glycerophospholipid and phosphonate metabolism. CONCLUSIONS: Our studies have indicated differences in the metabolomic signature of badgers found dead in relation to their infection status, suggesting metabolomics could hold potential for developing novel diagnostics for bTB in badgers. As well as highlighting a potential way to handle samples containing a highly pathogenic agent at CL2 for metabolomics studies.

Uptake of baits by wild badgers: Influences of deployment method, badger age and activity patterns on potential delivery of an oral vaccine.

In parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland, the European badger is a wildlife host for Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis). Badger vaccination is one management option for reducing disease spread. Vaccination is currently achieved by parenteral vaccination of captured badgers, but an oral vaccine delivered in a bait may provide an additional approach in the future. We conducted two field experiments in wild badger populations to identify factors that influence uptake (% of individuals with evidence of bait consumption) of candidate oral vaccine baits. In both instances, baits containing the biomarker iophenoxic acid (as a proxy for the vaccine) were fed at burrows (setts) associated with badger social groups (study A = 48 groups, study B = 40 groups). Badgers were captured following a period of bait deployment to quantify uptake in relation to age, sex and social group. In addition, groups were allocated different treatments and the bait deployment protocol was varied to identify effects on uptake. Study A tested the effects of season, bait type, bait placement and packaging, while study B investigated the effects of bait quantity and badger activity levels. Overall bait uptake was low (Study A = 24 %, Study B = 37 %) but this varied among treatment groups (range 0-58 %). In both studies, bait uptake was significantly higher in cubs than in adults. Uptake was substantially higher where baits were placed directly into sett entrances (rather than under tiles near setts), and by badgers caught at main setts rather than at outlier setts. Season, bait type and packaging did not influence uptake, while increasing the quantity of bait available increased uptake by cubs but not by adults. Levels of badger activity at setts varied over time (suggesting potential disturbance), but were positively associated with levels of bait uptake.

Seroconversion against antigen MPB83 in badgers (Meles meles) vaccinated with multiple doses of BCG strain Sofia.

Serological diagnosis of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers (Meles meles) has relied primarily on antibody recognition of MPB83, a sero-dominant antigen of M. bovis. Most vaccine studies in badgers to date have used the Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Danish strain, a low producer of MPB83. Due to a supply shortage of the BCG Danish strain, the BCG Sofia SL222 strain has been considered as an alternative vaccine. This strain is a high producer of MPB83 raising the possibility that vaccinated animals will test sero-positive in diagnostic assays that use this antigen. In this study we vaccinated a group of eleven badgers with BCG Sofia SL222 by injection via the intramuscular route and a booster vaccine dose was similarly delivered at 12 weeks and 64 weeks. Primary vaccination did not result in measured detection of antibodies against MPB83 in any badger during the first twelve weeks using serum or whole blood tested by the Dual Path Platform (DPP) VetTB, however, MPB83 antibodies were detected in a semi-quantitative ELISA assay. Following delivery of booster BCG at 12 weeks and 64 weeks, antibody responses against MPB83 were recorded in badgers using whole blood and serum on DPP VetTB and by ELISA. At all time points, vaccination was also associated with the in vitro production of gamma interferon (IFN-γ) following stimulation of lymphocytes with bovine and avian tuberculin (PPD) but not with MPB83 or M. bovis specific antigen CFP-10. The results indicate that serological diagnosis of tuberculosis using tests that target MPB83 may be compromised if badgers are repeatedly vaccinated with BCG Sofia.

Is there an association between road building and bovine tuberculosis herd risk? A three time-point study in Ireland, 2011-2019.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis which results in a significant economic cost to cattle industries and governments where it is endemic. In Ireland, the European badger is the main wildlife reservoir of infection. In this study, we investigated whether (motorway) road construction was associated with an increased risk of bTB in associated cattle herds. For this study, we considered three observation periods: pre-construction (2011-2014), construction (2015-2017) and post-construction (2018-2019). We selected 1543 herds situated, based on proximity, between >50 m and <5 km of the roadworks, and extracted information about their herd-size, herd-type, inward animal movements, bTB history, and distance to the roadworks. Generalized linear mixed models were performed, whose outcome were whether a herd experienced a bTB breakdown with ≥1 or ≥3 standard reactor/s, respectively. Herds located at a distance of >3 km from the roadworks were found to be at reduced risk of a bTB breakdown over the construction period compared with those situated within 1 km of the roadworks for ≥1 reactor/s (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.595, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 0.354-0.999) or ≥3 reactors (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.431, 95 % CI: 0.174-1.067). Other previously reported risk factors such as inward movements, herd-size and herd-type were also associated with bTB risk in the final models (≥1 reactor/s and ≥3 reactors). These findings appear to be consistent with bTB breakdowns being a consequence as opposed to coincident to road construction, given the temporal and spatial consistency of the evidence. The potential for badger social group disturbance leading to the spatial spread of infection to cattle herds, as previously described in the United Kingdom, could be a hypothetical mechanism to explain these findings. However, our findings are not consistent with previous Irish studies, including recent work from another road construction project, albeit running alongside and cross over an existing road rather than construction of a new road as in this case, or experiences from national targeted badger removal. Further research is warranted to verify this pattern occurs elsewhere, and the underlying biological mechanism. Until further data are available, we recommend that badgers are vaccinated, as a precautionary measure, in advance of the commencement of major roadworks.

Serologic responses correlate with current but not future bacterial shedding in badgers naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis.

Bovine tuberculosis is a challenging cattle disease with substantial economic costs in affected countries. Eradication in parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland is hindered by transmission of the causative agent Mycobacterium bovis between cattle and European badgers (Meles meles). Diagnostic tests in badgers are of limited accuracy but may help us understand and predict disease progression. This study aimed to determine the practical ability of a commercially available serologic test, the Dual Path Platform VetTB assay (DPP), to predict mycobacterial shedding (i.e. infectiousness) and disease progression in badgers, and whether test outcomes were associated with re-capture. Clinical samples collected from 2014 to 2019 from a wild, naturally infected population of badgers in southwest England were tested using mycobacterial culture (from sputum, urine, faeces, abscesses and bite wounds), an interferon-gamma release assay and the DPP assay. Data were analysed at both individual badger and social group levels using generalised linear and cumulative-link mixed models, and linear regression. Only the highest DPP readings [optical density relative light unit (RLU) levels] were associated with mycobacterial shedding [odds ratio (OR) for DPP levels > 100 RLU in individual badgers: 79.6, 95%CI: 14.7-848; and for social groups: OR: 7.28, 95%CI: 2.94-21.44; compared with levels < 100 RLU]. For individual badgers, RLU levels at first capture were not associated with disease progression at subsequent captures. Finally, badgers with very high DPP levels (> 1000 RLU) were four times less likely to be recaptured (OR: 0.24, 95%CI: 0.07-0.83) than those without a detectable DPP response, which might indicate enhanced mortality. We conclude that DPP levels of > 100 RLU identify badgers that are likely to be shedding M. bovis. Levels of > 1000 RLU identify badgers that are much less likely to be re-captured. These results provide insights into the potential value of existing tests in intervention strategies for managing M. bovis in badgers.

The effectiveness of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Dutch badgers.

Countries survey wildlife for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) to ensure case detection or to ascertain a high probability of freedom from bTB in wildlife. The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is a potential bTB reservoir host. Between 2008 and 2019, 282 badgers were examined post-mortem in the context of general wildlife disease and targeted bTB surveillance programmes in the Netherlands, and no bTB cases were detected. However, it was unclear how effective this surveillance effort was to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium bovis infection in the badger population of ±6000 or to detect cases if present. Therefore, surveillance effectiveness was assessed using scenario tree modelling. For lack of standards for wildlife, the models were run against three assumed levels of disease in the population called design prevalence P*: 0.1%, 0.5%, and 3%. A small risk of introduction (0.015/year) was applied, because the Netherlands are officially free from bTB in cattle, with rare import of bTB-infected cattle and no bTB-infected wildlife reported along the Belgian and German borders with the Netherlands. Surveillance more readily picks up bTB presence in badgers when case detection sensitivity tends towards 100% and demonstrates freedom best when the probability of freedom tends towards 100%. For P* 0.1%, 0.5% and 3%, respectively, maximum case detection sensitivity during 2008-2019 was 8%, 35% and 94% and the probability of freedom in 2019 was 46%, 67%, and 95%. At P* = 3%, performing targeted surveillance on 300 badgers in a year would make it extremely unlikely to miss a case (case detection sensitivity > 99.9%); and if no cases are detected, the adjusted probability of freedom would then reach nearly 98.5%. Stakeholders should be made aware that at P* = 3%, one case detected implies around 3% infected badgers. Additional surveillance system components to assess bTB in wildlife and its economics are to be explored further.

Protective immunity against tuberculosis in a free-living badger population vaccinated orally with Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guérin.

Vaccination of badgers with Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been shown to protect badgers against tuberculosis in experimental trials. During the 3-year County Kilkenny BCG vaccine field study, badgers were treated orally with placebo (100% in Zone A), BCG (100% in Zone C) or randomly assigned 50%: 50% treatment with BCG or placebo (Zone B). At the end of the study, 275 badgers were removed from the trial area and subjected to detailed post-mortem examination followed by histology and culture for M. bovis. Among these badgers, 83 (30.2%) were captured for the first time across the three zones, representing a non-treated proportion of the population. Analysis of the data based on the infection status of treated animals showed a prevalence of 52% (95% CI: 40%-63%) infection in Zone A (placebo), 39% (95% CI: 17%-64%) in Zone B (placebo) and 44% (95% CI: 20%-70%) in Zone B (BCG vaccinated) and 24% (95% CI: 14%-36%) in Zone C (BCG vaccinated). There were no statistically significant differences in the proportion of animals with infection involving the lung and thoracic lymph nodes, extra-thoracic infection or in the distribution and severity scores of histological lesions. Among the 83 non-treated badgers removed at the end of the study, the infection prevalence of animals in Zone A (prevalence = 46%, 95% CI: 32%-61%) and Zone B (prevalence = 44%, 95% CI: 23%-67%) was similar to the treated animals in these zones. However, in Zone C, no evidence of infection was found in any of the untreated badgers (prevalence = 0%, 95% CI: 0%-14%). This is consistent with an indirect protective effect in the non-vaccinated badgers leading to a high level of population immunity. The results suggest that BCG vaccination of badgers could be a highly effective means of reducing the incidence of tuberculosis in badger populations.

Detection of a local Mycobacterium bovis reservoir using cattle surveillance data.

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in cattle has been associated with TB in badgers (Meles meles) in parts of England. The aim was to identify badger-associated M. bovis reservoirs in the Edge Area, between the High- and Low-Risk Areas for cattle TB. Data from badger TB surveys were sparse. Therefore, a definition for a local M. bovis reservoir potentially shared by cattle and badgers was developed using cattle TB surveillance data. The performance of the definition was estimated through Latent Class Analysis using badger TB survey data. Spatial units (25 km2 ) in the Edge Area were classified as having a reservoir if they had (i) at least one TB incident in at least three of the previous 7 years, (ii) at least one TB incident in a cattle herd confirmed by post-mortem tests as due to M. bovis infection and not attributable to cattle movements in the previous 2 years and (iii) more confirmed TB incidents than un-confirmed in the previous 2 years. Approximately 20% of the Edge Area was classified as having a local M. bovis reservoir using the cattle-based definition. Assuming 15% TB prevalence in Edge Area badgers, sensitivity for the local M. bovis reservoir definition varied from 25.7% [95% credible interval (CrI): 10.7%-85.1%] to 64.8% (95% CrI: 48.1%-88.0%). Specificity was 91.9% (CrI: 83.6%-97.4%). Over 90% of the local reservoir was in stable endemic TB areas identified through previous work and its spatial distribution was largely consistent with local veterinary knowledge. Uncertainty in the reservoir spatial distribution was explored through its recalculation in spatial units shifted in different directions. We recommend that the definition is re-evaluated as further data on badger infection with M. bovis become available.

Inferring Mycobacterium bovis transmission between cattle and badgers using isolates from the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.

Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) is a causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, a significant source of morbidity and mortality in the global cattle industry. The Randomised Badger Culling Trial was a field experiment carried out between 1998 and 2005 in the South West of England. As part of this trial, M. bovis isolates were collected from contemporaneous and overlapping populations of badgers and cattle within ten defined trial areas. We combined whole genome sequences from 1,442 isolates with location and cattle movement data, identifying transmission clusters and inferred rates and routes of transmission of M. bovis. Most trial areas contained a single transmission cluster that had been established shortly before sampling, often contemporaneous with the expansion of bovine tuberculosis in the 1980s. The estimated rate of transmission from badger to cattle was approximately two times higher than from cattle to badger, and the rate of within-species transmission considerably exceeded these for both species. We identified long distance transmission events linked to cattle movement, recurrence of herd breakdown by infection within the same transmission clusters and superspreader events driven by cattle but not badgers. Overall, our data suggests that the transmission clusters in different parts of South West England that are still evident today were established by long-distance seeding events involving cattle movement, not by recrudescence from a long-established wildlife reservoir. Clusters are maintained primarily by within-species transmission, with less frequent spill-over both from badger to cattle and cattle to badger.

Tuberculosis in badgers where the bovine tuberculosis epidemic is expanding in cattle in England.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important animal health and economic problem for the cattle industry and a potential zoonotic threat. Wild badgers (Meles meles) play a role on its epidemiology in some areas of high prevalence in cattle, particularly in the UK and Republic of Ireland and increasingly in parts of mainland Europe. However, little is known about the involvement of badgers in areas on the spatial edge of the cattle epidemic, where increasing prevalence in cattle is seen. Here we report the findings of a study of found-dead (mainly road-killed) badgers in six counties on the edge of the English epidemic of bTB in cattle. The overall prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) infection detected in the study area was 51/610 (8.3%, 95% CI 6.4-11%) with the county-level prevalence ranging from 15 to 4-5%. The MTC spoligotypes of recovered from badgers and cattle varied: in the northern part of the study area spoligotype SB0129 predominated in both cattle and badgers, but elsewhere there was a much wider range of spoligotypes found in badgers than in cattle, in which infection was mostly with the regional cattle spoligotype. The low prevalence of MTC in badgers in much of the study area, and, relative to in cattle, the lower density of sampling, make firm conclusions difficult to draw. However, with the exception of Cheshire (north-west of the study area), little evidence was found to link the expansion of the bTB epidemic in cattle in England to widespread badger infection.

A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir.

Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.

Effect of selective removal of badgers (Meles meles) on ranging behaviour during a 'Test and Vaccinate or Remove' intervention in Northern Ireland.

The role of the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) as a wildlife host has complicated the management of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Badger ranging behaviour has previously been found to be altered by culling of badgers and has been suggested to increase the transmission of bTB either among badgers or between badgers and cattle. In 2014, a five-year bTB intervention research project in a 100 km2 area in Northern Ireland was initiated involving selective removal of dual path platform (DPP) VetTB (immunoassay) test positive badgers and vaccination followed by release of DPP test negative badgers ('Test and Vaccinate or Remove'). Home range sizes, based on position data obtained from global positioning system collared badgers, were compared between the first year of the project, where no DPP test positive badgers were removed, and follow-up years 2-4 when DPP test positive badgers were removed. A total of 105 individual badgers were followed over 21 200 collar tracking nights. Using multivariable analyses, neither annual nor monthly home ranges differed significantly in size between years, suggesting they were not significantly altered by the bTB intervention that was applied in the study area.